2014 predictions (of the non-obvious sort)

about this time every year, I make predictions five years out.   it is pretty hard to make predictions and i think the hardest time frame is five years.  it is far enough where a lot of change can happen but not too far where you cannot quickly see if you are right.   since i have been doing this since 2006 I'll be able to see the fruits of my predictions as early as 2011.

here are my non-obvious predictions for 2014:

  • At least one of your friends will have quadruplets. 
  • A huge surge of populism will overtake the world — immigration to Western countries will be halved, massive trade barriers will be in effect, and lots of people will be looking for scapegoats. 
  • At least one major European country will effectively become an autocracy and many will flirt with extreme fascism or communism. 
  • Massive pressure will be unleashed on Congress and States to amend the Constitution to allow a President to serve a third term. 

4 thoughts on “2014 predictions (of the non-obvious sort)

  1. Travis Kalanick

    Auren, interesting prognostications. . . before I decide what to do about them, can you provide a link to your ’06, ’07, ’08 predictions?

  2. Jake

    We will have an automated and customized daily news service similar to what we see in movies about the future. (“Good morning Auren. The weather for today is partly cloudy at a current temperature of 42 degrees and rising to 68 degrees by 2PM. You have a breakfast meeting at 730 with your Rapleaf coworkers a IHOP in Redwood City, directions have been loaded to your car. The Oakland A’s played the Kansas City Royals yesterday and won 8-2, they are playing the second game of a double-header tonight at 7pm. Three of your friends on Twitter have indicated an interest in going, I can purchase tickets for you…etc…”)

  3. Patricia

    What no demise of the dreaded middle seat on airplanes!
    Please use finer strokes when predicting mass corruption of nations or collapse of trade agreements.
    Need you be reminded 2014 is a big non presidental election year for Congress and States.
    But to just play along I predict 2014 Water will be valuable than Gold because of massive drought will cause federally mandated rationing.


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