I’ve been think a lot about dynasties … and I don’t think it is good for America …

Particular the Clintons and the Bushes. If Hillary Clinton wins in 2008 (I would say that is a good possibility) and goes two terms … and then she is followed by Jeb Bush for two terms (another possibility) …

Then:
In every presidential election from 1980 – 2020 (or 32 yrs), either a Clinton or a Bush will have been on the winning the presidential ticket. That makes us look like a development nation with a struggling democracy.

Already a Bush or a Dole has been on the Republican presidential ticket since 1976 (28 yrs).
And are we ready for a Chelsea Clinton vs George P Bush in 2032? (they’ll both be about 50 then).

Do we really want presidential politics dominated by just a few families? This isn’t to say that a member of a family dynasty can’t be a good President. It is only to be very wary of concentrated power.

Our founding fathers were very concerned about dynasties. It isn’t coincidence that out of our first five Presidents, only Adams had a son. And Adams was very telling. He was the only one of the first five Presidents to last only one term and, to prove the power of dynasties, his son, John Quincy Adams, became the sixth President.

One of the things I have been doing for Rapleaf is talking to people that gather and analyze intelligence. We’re very interested in systems that gather discreet pieces of info and put them together to find patterns and good intelligence.

while talking to intelligence officers (mostly those in the US govt) i found something very interesting: an incredible fear of failure. the fear for a false positive (falsely identifying something) is so incredibly high that these officers err on the side of massive false negatives (in this case, not going out on a limb or being creative).

essentially, they seem highly risk averse … and there seems to be very good reason to be risk averse as a false positive is often a career ending move in many intelligence services (often yielding to career stagnation or even firing).

somehow … and i’m not sure how … we need to reward people for being wrong. and then protect those people. encourage good mistakes (not stupid mistakes — there is a big difference).

of course, i’m not an intelligence expert … but the fear amongst analysts is so pervasive that it MUST be a signal of an endemic problem.

Ori Brafman and Rod Beckstrom have published an interesting article in the SF Chronicle today on facing and combatting terrorism:

The ‘starfish model’ for the war on terrorism …. How to counter a decentralized foe

i highly recommend reading this. it is from the authors of the new upcoming book Starfish and the Spider.

snip:

In the 1980s, headlines told of radicals waging a secret war, of hidden cells and of the FBI’s inability to do anything about them. They weren’t talking about al Qaeda, but about the Animal Liberation Front, which took direct action on behalf of animals (i.e., broke into labs). Some applauded the ALF’s efforts; others condemned them. But the FBI wasn’t able to contain these tofu-eating activists. The more aggressively the ALF was pursued, the more easily it recruited new members.

Like AA, the ALF lacked formal leadership, top-down hierarchy and structure. It was just a loose collection of informal circles linked by common beliefs. But its seemingly chaotic structure made it incredibly resilient to attack. The ALF drew its power from its decentralization.

today is a good day to look back and reflect. 9/11 seems like a long time ago to me … much more than five years. yet it also seems like yesterday.

a few days after 9/11, i had an odd and somewhat humorous experience … i was visited by the FBI. the agent was extremely professional and curteous and i’m glad we have people like him helping our country.

back in october 2001 when i was still doing Summation push-style (in an old-school email newsletter), i sent out this summary of my one and only FBI encounter [see original here]:

MY VISIT FROM THE FBI (published October 1, 2001)

On Friday, September 15, just three days after the horrible terrorist attacks, I got an e-mail from my roommate.

“Subject: You had a visitor.”

“A FBI agent just stopped by the house and would like to talk with you. He said he was following up a lead where your name was referenced. I don’t think it is a big deal – he was alone and not super pressed to talk with you.”

“I have his card. His name is XXXX XXXX. His phone number is ####. He will need to talk with you face to face and said he would meet you anywhere in the city.”

I got the e-mail at 2:47 pm and wanting to help in any way I could, I immediately called the FBI agent and left a message. By 3:30 pm he was in my office interviewing me.

He flashed a badge. I’ve never seen an FBI badge before, but this one looked legitimate. He gave me his card. His title: “Special Agent.” He took a seat on my couch. I sat back in my chair.

My first inclination was that this was about one of the many security references I’ve done for former employees of mine that went on to work in sensitive areas of the government. The FBI does background checks on anyone who gets an offer for a sensitive job. Was my friend who used to work for the NSA in trouble? Unlikely. What about the quiet woman who now works for the Justice Department? Who could it be?

Then he pulled out a copy of an e-mail I sent on Sunday, September 9, just two days before the horrible attack. The e-mail was an advanced copy of a future Summation article (will be in next month’s Summation) comparing the Israeli terrorist situation to a fictional scenario in America.

Also, you might remember in the last issue of Summation (see letters below) I wrote a column entitled “U.S. Homeland Security Agency is Unavoidable” (see http://www.summation.net/push0108.html). I wrote this column in July and wrote the paragraph:

“The occurrence of a major terrorist act on U.S. soil within the next ten years is almost a certainty. I’m not just talking about the bombing of the Twin Towers. I’m talking about something more serious, something that would result in the killing of thousands of people, is inevitable. This is the dangerous world we live in.”

I have never been more sad that one of my predictions came true. Of course, my ten year time horizon was far too optimistic. Turns out it was more like 10 weeks.

Read the last Summation — my thoughts which were released just eight weeks before the event seem like they were written today. I guess that’s why I was visited by the FBI Special Agent.

Agent: “Did you have any prior knowledge to Tuesday’s actions?”

Auren: “Absolutely not.”

Agent: “Do you know or have any connection to Osama bin Laden?”

Auren: “No. I’m Jewish.”

Agent: “Do you have a criminal record?”

Auren: “I don’t think so.”

Agent: “Correct — I checked your criminal record. You don’t have a record.”

The interview only lasted 20 minutes and the agent was only following-up on a lead. Normally I’d be mad at someone taking time out of my day to interview me. But I understand he had to interview me that Friday. I’m glad he did — we should follow-up on every lead possible.

I hope we never have a day like September 11th again. Unfortunately, I know another day of terror is going to be extremely difficult to prevent.