Category Archives: Current Affairs

Five Links for November

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share.

Here are five links worth reading…

Jane Street and the Arbitrage Royal Family by Hide Not Slide

The Ocaml advantage: How Jane Street leaned on an obscure coding language to hire better programmers and climb to the top of the prop trading food chain. 

Listen: Packy McCormick: Web3 & Smart Optimism (World of DaaS Podcast)

A fascinating conversation with a true optimistic thinker about the future of tech in the next five years, and the next 50 years. Packy thinks deeply about the root forces driving innovation and progress. 

Should America Go All In On Ukraine? by David Sacks

Sacks is one of the most lucid foreign-policy thinkers. Here he reviews the nuclear threat from a risk analysis perspective. 

Breaking: Elon Musk is Not Stupid by Sven Schnieders

Decoding what looks like bad decision making and finding simplicity on the other side of complexity— or, the metrics that really matter in evaluating early-stage companies.

San Francisco: The Reckoning is Here by Peter Yared

There’s been lots written about the decline of San Francisco and what it means for tech and the country as a whole. This is an honest, straightforward look at what went wrong driven by data (not partisan buzzwords). Essential reading for anyone who cares about American cities.  

Bonus (Humor): I Work from Home by Colin Nissan.

The funniest thing I have read all year.  

HT: Eugene Chong

Bonus (Framework): From Nostradamus to Fukuyama by Scott Alexander

Predictions are one of the biggest drivers of “discourse.” A useful spectrum for thinking about predictions, and whose predictions are doomed to misinterpretation.  

More reading links at https://twitter.com/AurenReads 

Books:

The Strategy of Denial – Elbridge Colby

HT: Michael Kratsios

Leadership and Self-Deception – The Arbinger Institute

HT: Jay Friedman

The Kill Chain – Christian Brose

HT: Dave Fitzgerald

The Key Man – Simon Clark & Will Louch

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Five Links for October

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share.

Here are five links worth reading…

A Triumph of Avoiding the Traps by David Carr

Twelve years on from its original publishing, this article on Oprah Winfrey’s success is still essential reading for everyone, especially entrepreneurs. On the value of knowing your strengths, staying in your lane, and leading with authenticity. 

Listen: Tim Urban: Zooming out on Everything (World of DaaS podcast)

A wide-ranging conversation with one of my favorite thinkers. Tim Urban can talk about anything and covers nothing short of love, death, time, and artificial superintelligence in this conversation. 

6 Discontinued and Uncommon U.S. Currency Denominations

The unknown history behind the $500 bill, the $1000 bill, the $5000 bill, the $10,000 bill, and even the $100,000 bill.

Caesar vs. Dominance-Oriented Status Seekers by Rob Henderson

A bit of Shakespeare and social science. Dives into the correlation betweens status-seeking and political discontent, and two distinct psychological profiles of discontent: populists and dominance-oriented status seekers.    

Siting Bank Branches by Patrick McKenzie

A deep dive into the mechanics of choosing bank branch locations and setting up branch networks. Significantly more interesting and nonobvious than it sounds. 

Bonus (Advice): A Manual for the Low-EQ CEO

Being a low EQ CEO isn’t totally uncommon, but it can be a severe disadvantage as a leader. As someone who’s spent years figuring out how to overcome these disadvantages, I hope this guide will help other low EQ leaders (and those who work with them). 

Books:

Fooling Some of the People All of the Time by David Einhorn

Fiction: “East of the West” by Miroslav Penkov

A beautiful short story about growing up in Serbia, falling in love, and disappointment.

Silicon Valley Porn Star by Jason Portnoy

HT: Jason Portnoy

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Five Links for September

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

Understanding Jane Street by Byrne Hobart
Should the smartest students continue going into prop trading instead of trying to cure cancer? Everyone’s heard of Jane Street but do you understand what they really do?

Listen: Sheila Heen: How to Navigate Difficult Conversations
Difficult conversations are challenging and necessary. Life is filled with them, yet most people don’t know how to navigate them effectively. Here are tactics to get better at difficult conversations.

Status, Vulnerability, and Status Vulnerability by Erik Torenberg
Cancel culture, tall poppy syndrome, and a holistic look at how our personal motivations play out on a global scale as status games. Very useful advice for how to escape the status rat race.

Listen: Terry Kawaja: The Future of AdTech
The AdTech world changes every 18 months driven by new regulations and technology changes. But the current downturn may have a lasting impact on the landscape.

The Midwit Trap
Why are we so dismissive of simple solutions? Sometimes the smartest people are the first to complexify a solution when the simple solution is the best answer.

Bonus: The Inside Story of Carlos Ghosn’s Brazen Escape From Japan
The James Bond-esque lead-up to smuggling former Nissan exec Carlos Ghosn out of Japan in a musical instrument case.

Bonus Listen: Founders podcast by David Senra
My new favorite podcast. Senra gives a good summary of biographies of entrepreneurs.
HT: Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Graph of the Month: The best founders are both Smart and Positive.
… but most smart people are negative

Books:

The Merchant and the Alchemist’s Gate (fiction) by Ted Chiang (must read)
I don’t normally read fiction but this short-story (18-pages) by Ted Chiang is amazing. Highly recommend.
HT: Tenzing Shaw

The Seven Sins of Memory by Daniel Schachter (really interesting)
HT: Sheila Heen

Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman
HT: Marissa Shandell

Build by Tony Fadell
HT: Tony Fadell

Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation by Yossi Klein Halevi

Bloodchild (fiction) by Octavia Butler
HT: Mary Therese Jackson

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Five Links for August

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

Beliefs are Fashions by Erik Torenberg
People don’t choose beliefs based on logical value or merits, but based on how much status they can garner in their tribes.

Little Ways the World Works by Morgan Housel
If you find something that’s true in more than one field, it’s probably important. A look at the rules from statistics, philosophy & evolutionary biology and the broader truths we can learn from them.

Listen: David Epstein: Never Underestimate the Generalist
In a complex world, thinking broadly is more important than ever yet society increasingly values narrow subject expertise. Explore the pitfalls of specialization and how to think about your own career.

Geographic mobility is one secret of successful immigration by Tyler Cowen
Without hometown roots, immigrant families are more likely to move to areas with higher opportunity, resulting in better outcomes than their native-born economic peers.

Correlations go to One, in Good Ways and Bad by Byrne Hobart
Markets, both in the economic sense and the financial one, are machines for producing valuable information about how the probabilities of different events are connected. There is no free lunch.

Bonus (Listen): Gary Marcus: The Failed Promise of Artificial Intelligence
Is AGI really right around the corner? What will it take for AI to reach the next threshold of capability? Gary Marcus offers some insight and a critical perspective in a complex field. 

Graph of the Month: Quality of AV systems don’t scale with wealth

Books:

The Making of the Atom Bomb by Richard Rhodes (Must Read)
(this is a really long book but one of the best books i have read in the last 20 years)
HT: Matt Clifford

The End of the World is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan
HT: Johnnie Moore

Lights Out by Thomas Gryta and Ted Mann
HT: Marc Andreessen

Spy Wars by Tenent Begley

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Five Links for July

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

The Current Thing
Why is everyone up in arms about something new every month? Due to mimetic desire, social psychology, and social media, the mainstream converges to an intellectual monoculture.

Listen: Liv Boeree: Developing a Probabilistic Mindset
Probability seeps into every aspect of our lives, yet most people don’t apply it all to their daily activities. Liv lays out frameworks everyone should apply to life, society and science.

The Purpose of Technology
Technology’s proximate purpose is to provide leverage and do more with less – effectively reducing scarcity. But its long-term purpose is to reduce mortality, the main source of scarcity.

Optimism
It’s a lot easier to sound smart as a cynic than as an optimist. But the upside of optimism is unlimited, it’s like a call option on society. So why do so many people choose to be pessimistic?

Trying Too Hard
Being a novice can be more valuable than being an expert. Everyone wants to be an expert, whether it’s law, medicine or investing. But often, the best answer is the simple, obvious one.

Bonus (Advice): 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I had Known
Life advice from one of the greatest optimists. An invaluable list covering abstract and tactical topics that would certainly make everyone a better person.

Bonus (Listen): Antonio Garcia Martinez: A New Approach to Regulation
Regulation which appears great on paper often has many unintended consequences. This is especially true when it comes to big tech and privacy regulation.

Graph of the Month: Trust your gut, but only sometimes

Books:

Range by David Epstein
HT: David Epstein, Brett Sylvia

Team of Vipers by Cliff Sims
HT: Cliff Sims

The Bond King by Mary Childs

Why We Fight by Christopher Blattman
HT: Tyler Cowen

Investing: The Last Liberal Art by Robert Hagstrom

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Five Links for June

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

The New Science of Alt Intelligence
The perceived objective of AI has always been to mimic human behavior. But most researchers today don’t want this. Instead, they’re focused on building what’s called “alt intelligence”.

Listen: Glenn Fogel: The Greatest Acquirer in History
M&A is messy and most of it fails. Fogel has somehow managed to complete several successful acquisitions while building Booking Holdings. What does he know that others don’t?

Perspective: What people get wrong about political polarization
While it may feel like polarization is at an all-time high, that democracy is crumbling and that misinformation is destroying society, a closer look at history may suggest otherwise.

Why don’t nations buy more territories from each other?
You can count all the transactions involving the sale of land from one country to another in the past century on one hand. Why don’t more countries sell off land? Tyler Cowen explores why.

Listen: Barry Nalebuff: A Radical New Way to Negotiate
Most negotiations are unfavorable for all parties because more time is spent bargaining for a larger slice of the pie and not enough time is spent defining the pie. Defining the pie can unlock win-win scenarios in most negotiations.

Bonus (Adorable): Coco: Investment Committee Memo
Dogs are undoubtedly the highest returning investment for most people. Here’s a very compelling memo explaining why.

Bonus (Listen): Introduction to Mimetic Theory
Most people want what others have. Rene Girard coined the term Mimesis, the desire to imitate one another, and concluded that it was Mimesis that drove most of society’s problems.

Graph of the Month: Slack is great… until it’s not

Books:

The Machiavellians by James Burnham (must read)
HT: Marc Andreessen

The Dawn of Everything by David Graeber & David Wengrow
HT: Sashi McEntee, Pete Zajonc, Roy Bahat

Blue Ocean Strategy by W. Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne
HT: Russ Thau

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Five Links for May

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

Did Making the Rules of War Better Make the World Worse?
The rules of war have changed dramatically over the last half a century. Improvements in military technology have given us fewer civilian casualties… but prolonged wars. 

Listen: David Perell: Building a Personal Monopoly
It’s more important than ever to play your own game in a society where everyone is imitating one another. The secret may lie in biblical and philosophical texts. 

Heresy
Heresy, while medieval in origin, manifests in modern western society in inconspicuous ways. Paul Graham provides heuristics on how to navigate conflicts of heresy in today’s world. 

Like America, The Sunshine State Also Rises
Florida (and in particular, Miami) has been dubbed as the new home of ambition. But Florida has a long history of ambitious endeavors. The state will only become more important over time.

Listen: Sebastian Mallaby: The Greatest Storyteller in Venture Capital
Venture Capital is evolving as we speak. New players are playing very different games from traditional VCs. Mallaby paints the picture of how we got to where we are today. 

Bonus: Demystifying the SafeGraph Facts
SafeGraph sells facts about places and our mission is to democratize access to data. Part of this mission means making it available in a self-serve way. But of course, making data accessible also has drawbacks.

Bonus (Listen): It’s Our Moral Obligation to Make Data More Accessible
In case you didn’t get to read my essay last month, here’s an audio version. Most of the world’s data is sitting on a shelf. This data, if properly used, could solve the world’s biggest problems.

Graph of the Month:

Books:

The True Believer by Eric Hoffer (must read)
HT: Garrett Johnson, Jack Franson, Francisco Dao

The Score Takes Care of Itself by Bill Walsh
HT: Keith Rabois, Jason Cook

How Rights Went Wrong by Jamal Greene

Blue Ocean Strategy by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
HT: Russ Thau

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Five Links for March

Every month I try to share the most mind-expanding links to read/watch/listen. If you find these interesting, please do share with your friends.

Here are five links worth reading…

The Economics of Data Businesses
A deep dive into what makes data businesses special.  A must read if you enjoyed my DaaS Bible.  HT Abraham Thomas.

Listen: Tyler Cowen: Identifying Talent and Measuring Organizational Capital
Tyler needs no introduction.  He breaks down how to spot promising talent and why our allocation of our time (our most valuable resource) would be one of the most powerful datasets. 

Theses on Sleep
A controversial perspective on sleep. The author suggests that it is healthy to sleep less.

Listen: Niall Ferguson: Writing History with Data
Technology drives many societal transformations.  Yet, very few people working in technology spend time studying the past.

Slow-Motion Suicide in San Francisco
Over the past two years, 2x more people have died from drug overdose in San Francisco than from COVID. 

Bonus (Serious): I Thought I Was Prepared for Grief. Then I Lost My Dad
Grief is more complicated than anyone ever imagines.  And nobody is ever fully prepared for it. 

Bonus (Inspirational): ‘Manhattan Phoenix’ Review: From Grit to Greatness
The story behind the catalyst for the explosive development of Manhattan in the 19th century.

Graph of the Month:

Books:

The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby (must read)
The best history of venture capital

The World for Sale by Javier Bias & Jack Farchy (must read)

Comrade J by Pete Earley (must read)
HT Josh Steinman
Fantastic story about the art of spying for the KGB/FSB

The King of Content by Keach Hagey
Story of Sumner Redstone

Fall by John Preston
Story of Robert Maxwell

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Is it ethical for tech start-ups to take a CARES PPP loan?

There is a lot of debate about whether it is ethical for technology companies to take a CARES PPP loan. There are a lot of good arguments on both sides.

There are a lot of venture-backed start-ups that have over 12-months cash in the bank. The question is whether is it ethical for them to take this government money. The argument is that there is a limited pool of cash and that many local businesses are struggling and need the cash more than venture-backed start-ups.

This is a very complex ethical dilemma.

Before we get into that exactly … let’s dive first into the question of whether it is ethical to take government money at all if there is someone more needy than you.

One example is QSBS tax credit. That is a significant tax rebate that is given to investors who invest in a qualified small business (including most venture-backed businesses). It is an extremely generous credit and most of the people who take advantage of it are very rich people. Is it ethical for these people to take advantage of the QSBS tax credit?

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Financially Drowning on $300k a Year

Exorbitant Salaries don’t make for Exorbitant Lifestyles

Here is an interesting paradox: the world is experiencing the largest bull market in history, but fewer than one out of five Americans feel like they’re living the American Dream. Many of these people have incomes ranging well above six figures, in the vicinity of $200-400k, and still worry about making ends meet. 

In 2018, the Department of Housing found that a salary of $117,000 is considered low income in San Francisco. Effectively, making six figures puts one into poverty in SF (if you are taking care of a family). Sadly, this is not a trend isolated to the Bay Area. There is a financial disparity amongst people who are in the top 2% of earners in the U.S. who live in expensive areas, and not because they can’t afford a yacht.

All-together, these families are earning a tremendous salary by any standard (often more than $300k per year), attending the most prestigious graduate schools and coming from upper-middle-class backgrounds. The scariest part is that these are not people you’d expect to be struggling. In fact, if you took and average U.S. family of four and told them that a family who made $300k/yr – the top 2% of income in the U.S. – was struggling, they would laugh hysterically.  They would never believe you because the median US salary is $62k. It would be called fake news.

Unfortunately, this story is playing out across the country. Of course, it is not happening everywhere nor is it happening to everyone.  It is primarily happening to secular people that have kids and live in ultra-expensive places like New York City, DC suburbs, Bay Area, etc.  The inflation rate in those cities for core goods (housing, healthcare, and education) have been growing at a rate of more than 10% a year for the last 10 years. How do these elites manage to keep afloat? The short answer is that they’re not able to and the consequences could have a drastic impact on the future of our nation’s democracy.

Sisyphus’ Hedonic Treadmill

The Elite With No Savings (TEWNS)

A necessary piece of the puzzle requires imagining what these people look like; how fanciful are their lives that they feel like they are working class on $300k a year? People have a tough time believing this because on the surface, The Elite With No Savings (or TEWNS) are doing well. To paint the picture, these are families with two college educated parents, perhaps they met at an Ivy League school, with young kids.  They live in expensive cities, far from their parents, while paying off a mortgage. Daycare and expensive schools are a must for these families, eating into their bottom-line and leaving almost nothing for savings. 

For the top 2%, life should be different; they played the game well by delaying gratification and they went to a top school while knocking their academic careers out of the park. They passed the Marshmallow Test. Still, many are financially underwater after learning that there’s more to life than just academics.

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Greenland should sell itself to the U.S. … and the U.S. should buy Greenland

Greenland is very strategic territory and becoming more strategic by the day (due to global warming). It is one of most important locations for a military presence. And it would be extremely undesirable (to the U.S.) if a rival country had a significant military presence on Greenland.

But Greenland needs a lot of development. Its 56,000 inhabitants need better resources. While the average Greenlander has an income of $35,000 (more than half of what an average American makes), it takes a lot of resources to live in a place that has such extreme weather.

So here is a modest proposal: Greenland sells itself to the United States.

Yes, the first reaction might be that I’m a jingoistic crazy. But this could be good for every Greenlander.

Imagine selling Greenland to the U.S. for $120 billion (assuming the Danish allow the Greenlanders to make that self-determination). That means that each Greenlander will be worth $2 million — including every adult and child. They could even set up a trust for kids (so the kids, not their parents, have access to the money.

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Over-Rating Intelligence, Insulting Stupidity, Intellectual Bigotry, and Why the Ivory Tower Insults Successful People

There is a caricature of certain successful people as being stupid. I never understood this but it is something that has prevailed in our culture.

It is an odd insult often thrown by the less successful at the more successful. If these successful people were really so stupid, why did they accomplish so much?

We have a tradition of calling our President ‘stupid.’

It goes back a long way. Many of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s enemies (including many in his own party) called him stupid and a lightweight. Of course, we do not think of FDR today as a lightweight … but that was a criticism of him for many years.

In my lifetime, almost every Republican President has been caricatured as being stupid. Gerald Ford was the clumsy bumbler portrayed. Anyone of that era remembers Chevy Chase’s hilarious skits on Saturday Night Live. 

But Ford wasn’t a clumsy bumbler. He was actually the opposite — Ford was a world-class athlete. He was voted the most valuable player on the University of Michigan Football team.

Then came Reagan. How could an actor be smart? The zeitgeist was that Reagan was stupid and he was being taken advantage of by other members of his party. It was so assumed that he was a dummy that there is a classic SNL Phil Hartman skit that is a parody of the parody. The skit was so hilarious because no one could actually believe Reagan could take control of anything.

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