Richardson and Harman are my two early picks for potential VP running mates to whoever wins the Democratic presidential nomination.

Richardson is currently the governor of New Mexico – a significant swing state. He’s also Latino and speaks fluent Spanish. Before being governor, Richardson served in the Clinton administration as Secretary of Energy and also as the permanent representative to the United Nations. Before that he was a member of Congress. Richardson helps any Democrat win New Mexico while strengthening them among the Latino community.

Harman is a congresswoman serving the Santa Monica region in California. She is the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee so she has a strong resume in fighting terrorism. Harman helps secure California and secure the women’s vote for a potential Democrat.

Both Richardson and Harman have not yet been talked about as a potential vice president but I expect we will start hearing both their names more often over the next few months.

Clay Shirky writes in Many-to-Many: Is Social Software Bad for the Dean Campaign?

Shirky gives a very interesting analysis of not just the Dean campaign but its supporters. Too often people tend to support a candidate because of a candidate’s tactics rather than what the candidate will actually do in office.

Many Dean supporters liked Dean because he was anti-war and tough. But many others like Dean because he used the Internet to get support. The later, a tactic, is the wrong reason to like a candidate.

In 2000, many CEOs in Silicon Valley supported Gore because “he gets the Internet.” And its true, Gore was personally a lot more tech savvy than Bush. But Gore was on the wrong side of almost every major tech issue. Now you can still support a candidate that is against all your business interests — that is admirable — but you shouldn’t support someone based on a tactic.

David L. Phillips, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Center for Preventive Action, in conjunction with the Council on Foreign Relations, recently put out a very good report on the future of Georgia.

David collaborated with 18 people, including myself, to put together this report for Georgia’s newly elected President.

Peter Maass puts together another terrific article in tomorrow’s NY Times magazine: Professor Nagl’s War

it outlines the history of counterinsurgency and goes in detail about our efforts in Iraq today. this is a must read (but very long) article.

Great article in the most recent Economist — i highly recommend reading it:

The great American political divide, as seen through the congressional districts of Nancy Pelosi and Dennis Hastert

Some good quotes:
“Only 35% of San Franciscans own their own houses, compared with a national average of 70%.”

“But San Francisco now has one of the lowest proportions of families with children in the country (it has more dogs than children, say some). Almost 70% of the population is single.”

This is a very interesting analysis of a survey by Gallup:

Gallup Poll Analyses – Abortion Attitudes Today

Surprisingly to me, it actually shows attitudes toward pro-life gaining ground among the American public.

Mel Ochoa publishes another great edition of Global Degree

and he also includes an interview with my friend Kevin Hartz (CEO of Xoom)

On November 2, 2003, Georgia held watershed parliamentary elections.

No, I’m not talking about Georgia, home of Ralph Reed and Newt Gingrich … I’m talking about the other Georgia – the one that lies just south of Russia and north of Armenia and Azerbaijan. I’m talking about the Georgia that borders the Caucus Mountains and the Black Sea. The birthplace of both Ed Shevardnadze and Joe Stalin. And yes, the place where they want to name a mountain after Governor Schwarzenegger.

I went to Georgia as a delegate to observe the elections through IRI – the International Republican Institute – an organization (formed in 1983) funded by Congress to promote Democracy abroad. IRI is led by the able George Folsom, the South Carolina native with a long history of helping the world become a better place.

IRI issued its own statement of the elections that I agree with – and I’ve included my random and unstructured thoughts that follow:

– Not being a world traveler – my first observation is that lines are for losers. In the Vienna airport – running to catch my flight on Airzena (Georgian Airlines) and going through security and passport control … I was there … waiting dutifully on line … with people cutting in front of me left and right … just totally blatantly cutting in … and I’m the loser … just taking it … being a silly American…

– Most of the highway billboards in Georgia are blank … no, not filled with old advertisements that have long since expired (like Silicon Valley circa 2001) … but blank. The billboards that have ads are generally feature election candidates or cigarettes…

– We stayed in the Tbilisi Marriott (for four days) – which was actually quite luxurious – and the bathrooms were ADA compliant! Odd … here, in the old Soviet Union, they are starting to build to American code.

– Georgia is an interesting place. They’ve got only five million people – yet they have their own culture, their own religion (Georgian Orthodox), their own language, and even their own alphabet!

– We head to Telavi for three days where I am stationed to do election monitoring. The trip of only 120 kilometers took three hours because of the poor roads … with me is IRI staffer Liz Ruedy, Keti (our translator), Zaza (our driver), and some guy named Iragli (I have no idea what he did but he got mad and took a bus home half-way through the trip). Telavi is beautiful … it is the wine region of Georgia … and it is located in the shadows of the Caucuses … which is also near the Pankisi Gorge – one of the more dangerous regions in the world that is dominated by Chechen rebels (but I did not tell my mother that) …

– After arriving in Telavi, we head to the best restaurant in town … and it is huge! The place can fit maybe 1000 people with lots of seating outdoors – probably was an old soviet banquet hall … and … we are the only ones there! (they’re obviously very happy to see us) … We order chicken and roast beef … it takes an hour for us to get served the chicken … we are pretty sure they actually went out and killed the bird for us … and we are all worried about the roast beef …

– one thing about Georgian food … in every place we went to eat (even the really cheap places), they serve massive portions. I mean MASSIVE. We were usually served triple what we could eat. And the food is extremely delicious … so we were eating a lot … and gained much weight (its all bread and meat) …

– Profile of Zaza: our driver. Zaza dressed in all black – shoes, socks, pants, turtleneck, and jacket – all black. He doesn’t say much and he doesn’t like fish. He’s a great driver – can maneuver even the tightest corner … but Zaza ALWAYS gets lost (in fact, it seems everyone always gets lost in Georgia as the roads rarely follow a set pattern and streets are not clearly marked) … he’s got a big smile and he likes to blast his Sade tape while driving … SMOOTH OPERATOR …

– Profile of Keti: our translator. When I ask her — “what do you want to eat?” she answers “cow” — which I assume is the literal translation for “beef”. Keti is 25, married, and has a 7 year old son (she was married at age 17) — which is all pretty common in Georgia. She and her husband (an economist) live in Tbilisi with his parents and his brother (also very common). She asks me many questions about America. She asks about the differences between men and women, about American weddings, about the plight of black people, and asks if Armenian Americans are rich. She thinks it is weird the people might live with a roommate they never met before and she does not know many people that “date”. Keti thinks Internet dating is really crazy. Most of her friends (all married) are part of only one-income families. But in all those cases … it is the women that are the bread winners … the men would rather be unemployed than “settle” for a job as a waiter, cashier, etc. The men sit … at home … watching TV … and are philosophers … while the women toil ….

– On election day we wake up at 5:30 am … and get ready for a big day with a big breakfast … and then off to open the first poll where we watch the set up, the ballots being unlocked, the voter rolls being posted, and more. The ballot box was secured with post-it notes and crazy glue – and for some odd reason, the only thing I could think about was that no one there should sniff the glue. I’m glad that there was no helium there – we all might have been talking like Donald Duck …

– We headed to polling station 4 — the room is filled with pictures of old Georgian chess champions — some as far back as the 1890s — their faces look down at us … Some smiling … Some just looking away … The men and women look down at us and make us want to yell “checkmate!” Ever play chess in the nude? Ok, I haven’t either …. But I wish the chess board was made of card board rather than wood — I want to throw one on the floor and start break-dancing … you know … doing that butt spin thingy … that might impress the Georgian voters … ok … I was getting pretty delirious at this point … maybe it was all that crazy glue …

– One thing I noticed … and we went to eight different polling places … is that most of the poll-workers and the party representatives watching the volunteers (there were usually 15 poll-worker and another 15 representatives) were women – about 80% of the people in the room at any given time were women.

– We arrived at our last polling station at 7:30 pm to watch the polls close and the count … you can’t leave the room during the count … and there is no bathroom in the room … so my strategy of drinking Coke throughout the night to keep me awake was shot … they finally started counting the ballots at 12:24 am … and finally finished around 5:00 am … we were home … asleep … by 5:30 am … exactly 24 hours from the time we started …

– It turns out that though things went pretty smoothly in Telavi, the elections were not free and fair throughout the country and I kept thinking about how analogous the country was to America in the early 20th Century (or to current places like Cook Country, IL) … I just hope no one there voted for Pat Buchanan by accident …

– Later on in Tbilisi … with the country in an uproar over the election … I watch the protests in the streets … and I see how much the Georgian people care about the future of their country … and it is a beautiful country with massive scenery changes, a great beach in the summer … amazing skiing in the winter … but no infrastructure (roads, power, heat, security) to support tourism for them to profit on their country’s beauty … Georgia is rich in people, but is also rich in corruption … it is a place that could have a very bright future … or could be mired for a long time … and this past election and the next one (for President in April, 2005) are key barometers for where Georgia is heading …

Check out my pictures from Georgia

I was talking to Geoffrey Moore today on the politics of outshoring (outsourcing services to people outside the US) and he brought up a very interesting point …

Are Americans entitled to a certain uber lifestyle?

We Americans live at a standard exponentially greater than most of the rest of the world — even greater than most of the first world. Is that an entitlement such that we need to worry about outshoring and leveling the playing field overseas? Or is it a classic example that our price is too high and that we are inviting competition?

As you know, I spent the first week of November in Georgia (the country, not the state) as a delegate to monitor the nation-wide elections there.

One of my fellow delegates, Zeyno Baran, Director for International Security and Energy Programs at The Nixon Center, wrote a very insightful article on the current and future state of Georgia in The National Interest.

How many college graduates do you know?

If you are a college graduate, most of your friends are also probably college graduates…

But 75% of Americans over age 25 have never received their bachelors degree. that means only 25% have (i learned that math in college).

but ask yourself — how many people over age 25 do you know that do not have a college degree…

especially in towns like San Francisco (SF has the second highest, after Seattle, percentage of people with 4-year college degrees) … most college grads only know other college grads …

The United States is facing a severe nursing shortage that threatens the underpinnings of our health care system. We can take steps now that can provide short and long term solutions to this looming crisis.

The United States employs over 2.2 million registered nurses (RNs) – the largest professional category in America. There are currently over 120,000 unfilled nursing positions. By 2015, another 400,000 nurses will be needed. The RN shortage hurts patient care and already leads to thousands of unneeded deaths per year.

Recommendations:

1. Direct Health and Human Services to use some of the already-earmarked Nurse Reinvestment Act dollars to market nursing as a second career. With less than a two-year degree, one can make a good living working just part-time. A concentrated marketing effort will attract more Americans to the nursing profession and help solve the long-term shortage.

2. Allow foreign nurses to take the National Council Licensure Examination (NCLEX), the test that accredits nurses in the U.S., in their country of origin. Today, qualified nurses from abroad can only take the examination on American soil, which is a significant barrier to attracting new talent. Making it easier for foreign nurses to come to the U.S. will ease the short-term burden.

Justification …

Key imbalances

• In 1980, the average age of a nurse was 38 compared to the current 45 year old average.

• The current average age of retirement for a nurse is just 52.

• The average age of an RN is increasing more than twice as fast as all other occupations in the U.S.

• The number of students graduating from nursing school is smaller than the number of nurses that are retiring each year.

• Fewer nurses entering into the nursing field resulted in experienced nurses retiring or cutting back on hours due to the increased stress.

• The nursing profession is effectively pulling from half the population – only 10% of nurses are men.

• While the number of new nurses increased 3.7% in 2001 and 8.0% in 2002, there were still 10,000 fewer nurses in 2002 than in 1995.

Demand is increasing

Two main factors cause heightened demand for nurses:

1. Aging population. In 2000, there were 34.7 million people in the U.S. over 65 years old. By 2020, there will be over 53 million people over 65.

2. Regulatory burdens. In 2001, six new states limited overtime for nurses. Also, states like California now require all hospitals to have a one-to-five nurse to patient ratio (the average is one-to-seven today).

Wages

Nursing salaries average $47,000/year and wage increases have significantly outpaced inflation each of the last six years.

The wage increases have unexpectedly resulted in a backward-bending supply curve where many nurses have actually cut back their hours because they only want to earn a specific amount per year annually. Therefore, while higher wages attract new nurses in the long term, they create greater shortages in the short-term due to less total nursing hours.

A looming healthcare crisis can only be averted if we act now and act resolutely.